Israeli Killing of Hamas Political Chief Expected To Derail Ceasefire Talks

The Israeli assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in the Iranian capital of Tehran is expected to derail negotiations for a hostage and Gaza ceasefire deal.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, who has been mediating indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, expressed concern about the impact the assassination will have on the negotiations.

“Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners and a global stance against the disregard for human life,” al-Thani wrote on X.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was doing everything he could to sabotage the chances of a deal before his big trip to Washington, something that’s been widely acknowledged by Israeli media and officials.

Haniyeh was seen as Hamas’s leading proponent of reaching a ceasefire deal with Hamas. While Hamas’s top leader is Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding deep inside the tunnel system under Gaza, Haniyeh was the top official for the Palestinian group outside of Gaza and played a key role in the negotiations.

Progress toward a deal is not expected to be made as the region is bracing for Iran’s retaliation for the assassination on its territory and Hezbollah’s response to the Israeli killing of one of its top military commanders in Beirut.

US officials told Axios that they’re concerned the assassination of Haniyeh will derail negotiations and could lead to a major regional war. But the US is strongly backing Israel, as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin vowed the US would defend Israel from any retaliation.

The circumstances around Haniyeh’s death are unclear. His deputy, Khalil al-Haia, said Haniyeh was killed while sleeping at an official guest residency in Tehran. Al-Haia said Haniyeh was struck by a missile, but it’s unclear if Israeli warplanes were involved. Israel has previously carried out attacks inside Iran using small quadcopter drones that explode on impact.

Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is considered a moderate and pledged to pursue diplomacy to get Western sanctions lifted. But the Israeli assassination will likely also derail any Iranian plans to attempt to engage with the US on sanctions.